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Investment Monthly

Age of uncertainty

06 March 2026

Articles

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Key Takeaways:

House Views

Markets have seen a “great rotation” from growth and momentum, into value and emerging markets. We think that process has much further to run, but global market performance will continue to depend on profits growth
Continuing good performance in Asia and other emerging markets shows a "broadening out" of market leadership amid a backdrop of improving profits, with EMs looking structurally safer and relatively good value
Bonds have performed well recently, but have not been a consistently reliable portfolio diversifier. Investors should “diversify the diversifiers” to manage volatility with bond substitutes like hedge funds and real assets

Macro Outlook

Recent events in Iran and surrounding US tariffs confirm that the only certainty is uncertainty
If the recent spike in oil and gas prices proves temporary, our base case scenario should not be heavily impacted. But the risk of a prolonged conflict – and oil prices breaching USD100 – would be disruptive to growth
US growth has been robust, but there are some imbalances. K-shaped dynamics are in play: with AI capex booming. The labour market is stabilising, but tariff-driven price rises pose a headwind to consumers
In China supportive macro policies and tech/industrial competitiveness support growth, but economic imbalances remain a key challenge

Policy Outlook

Rising macro uncertainty is likely to keep Fed policy on hold in the coming months. We expect modest easing, with two 25bp rate cuts, later in 2026
Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair resolves a key question for investors but the impact on policy is not clear cut
Countries in EM Asia are adopting varying policy approaches, but support is broadly focused on tackling uneven growth and long-term strategic goals
China will continue to focus policy support on boosting domestic demand, alongside reforms to progress its strategic objectives in areas like technology innovation and self-reliance, and economic rebalancing

Scenarios

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Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at March 2026.

House View

Geopolitical and policy uncertainty is driving up market volatility. But unless there is a sustained oil price spike, the ongoing rotation in performance across sectors, countries, and styles, could continue, benefiting Europe, Asia, and EMs. Given heightened uncertainty, investors should “diversify the diversifiers” to build portfolio resilience

Equities — While the AI megatrend still dominates, we expect to see a continuation of the recent “great rotation” from growth and momentum, into value, which has benefitted Europe, Asia, and emerging markets. Global market performance depends on the outlook for oil prices, as well as profits growth
Government bonds — Inflation risks and fiscal concerns are weighing on developed market government bond performance. EM local currency bonds benefit from lower inflation and stronger growth
Corporate bonds — Investment grade credit spreads remain tight, but strong technicals, healthy balance sheets, and a positive profits outlook are supportive. We maintain a defensive stance with a preference for higher quality credits

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The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. House view
represents a >12-month investment view across major asset classes in our portfolios. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at March 2026.

Asset class performance at a glance

Markets continued to see a rotation Markets continued to see a rotation away from US large-cap tech and growth towards value, income, and previously lagging sectors and regions. In fixed income, long-duration sovereign bonds gained, while credit spreads saw some widening but remained relatively tight. Gold and oil both trended higher, while crypto prices weakened

Government bonds - Government bonds gained on a combination of cooling risk sentiment and the global influence of a sharp relative move in Japanese bonds. There was evidence of the stock-bond correlation turning negative again
Equities - Returns were muted in the US, with performance rotating to Japan, the UK and parts of Europe, and emerging market regions including Latam and Asia, and particularly South Korea and Taiwan. India continued to lag
Alternatives - Listed real estate continued to perform well, buoyed by the ongoing rotation that is benefitting asset-heavy sectors. Gold saw further gains on haven flows, and oil prices also rose on intensifying geopolitical tensions

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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.
Source: Bloomberg, all data above as at close of business 28 February 2026 in USD, total return, month-to-date terms. Note: Asset class performance is represented by different indices. Global Equities: MSCI ACWI Net Total Return USD Index. Global Emerging Market Equities: MSCI Emerging Market Net Total Return USD Index. Corporate Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global HY Total Return Index value unhedged. Bloomberg Barclays Global IG Total Return Index unhedged. Government bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Treasuries Total Return Index. JP Morgan EMBI Global Total Return local currency. Commodities and real estate: Gold Spot $/OZ, Other commodities: S&P GSCI Total Return CME. Real Estate: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Index TR USD. Crypto: Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.

Macro scenarios

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Market scenarios

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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Source: HSBC Asset Management March 2026.

Economic outlook

A divided Federal Reserve

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Past performance does not predict future returns. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Any views expressed were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. While any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management Limited accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, consensus numbers from Bloomberg, March 2026.

Events calendar 2026 - 6-month forward looking

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The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, March 2026.

Asset class positioning

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The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at March 2026.

On Top of Investors’ Minds

What are the implications of heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East?

Geopolitical risks and uncertainty have crystallised in the Middle East, and there are many possibilities for how future events will play out. In the narrow domain of financial markets, there are some important implications for investors.
First, the oil price has spiked. Historically, this is the usual channel for how geopolitical risk impacts the economy and investment markets. Concerns over oil supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz will remain a key concern, potentially affecting some 20% of global oil supply.
Initial moves in the oil price were notable. But it is the full shape of any oil shock (including in inflation-adjusted terms), which will determine the implication for the growth/inflation mix, the profits trajectory, and the effect on investor sentiment.
In the case of either a temporary spike in oil prices – around USD10-20 higher – or if the oil price rise is contained, growth can remain acceptable due to supportive policy, resilient corporate profits, and the strong AI capex cycle. But a period of much more elevated oil prices, a persistent shock of more than $20, or oil prices breaching USD100, would be far more disruptive to growth, which could hamper profits, and potentially undermine stock market multiples.

Growth impact of oil shock across economies

The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, Oxford Economics as at March 2026.

What might the recent changes to US trade policy mean for markets?

The recent ruling by the US Supreme Court against last year’s “reciprocal tariffs” has led to the introduction of a new set of measures, this time deployed under different legislation. And while this has modestly lowered the overall tariff rate for now, there is still uncertainty about who the longer-term winners and losers will be.
A lower effective tariff rate is good news for GDP growth and inflation. US growth is running around its trend pace, thanks to robust profits and the AI capex boom. And, while US inflation is likely to remain a bit sticky through 2026, recent data shows a gradual, bumpy journey back to the inflation target. Our central scenario remains for modest Fed policy easing later in 2026; likely two 25bp cuts. Rising policy uncertainty reinforces the idea that the Fed stays on hold in the next few months.
Last year, investment markets climbed the “tariff wall of worry”, performing strongly despite policy uncertainty. That was down to profits staying strong and rates being cut. The real test for investment markets in 2026 – amid heightened geopolitical risks – will come if inflation remains high, which would constrain the Fed. Or if profits start to wobble.

US effective tariff rate

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Can the recent rally in value and small cap stocks continue?

Although US stocks have been moving sideways for a while now, underneath the surface there has been a significant rotation into value and small cap names as US big tech performance falters. This is reflected in sector performance too, with materials, industrials and energy outpacing traditional winners such as tech, comms and consumer discretionary.
For the rest of 2026, there is a good chance this dynamic continues. The current macro backdrop of sticky inflation and interest rates is traditionally a positive one for value names, as we saw in 2022. Sector broadening is also helped by spillover effects of the AI capex boom and surge in metals prices.
All of this comes as the growth factor is vulnerable to ongoing concerns over the return on investment on tech capex, and AI damaging traditional business models within the tech industry, as we have seen with the recent software selloff.
The picture for small caps is a bit more complicated. Smaller businesses are more cyclically sensitive, and likely to do well amid a reasonable robust GDP growth environment and further Fed cuts. Many small cap names look undervalued too. But debt sensitivities mean they would be most at risk from a scenario of higher inflation.

Value versus growth, and small cap versus large cap relative performance

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What explains EM leadership so far in 2026?

It has been hard to miss the outperformance of emerging market stocks versus the US recently. And when you look under the bonnet, there are signs that investors are reallocating away from concentrated US exposure to regions with potentially more balanced growth and better diversification. This is increasingly evident in portfolio flows. Indeed, US retail investors’ purchases of EM stocks have been rising since the middle of last year. Given that EM is coming from a lower base, even a modest reallocation from the US to EM can potentially drive outsized performance.
Fresh dollar weakness in January and the prospect of US monetary easing are catalysing investor interest in EM assets. Valuations remain supportive: EM equities trade at a discount to developed markets, and real yields in many EM bond markets remain compelling relative to history. Plus, fundamentals are improving, with profits momentum strengthening across large parts of Asia and Latin America, helped by resilient domestic demand, easing inflation, and robust global trade.
Taken together, recent trends in portfolio flows point to EM assets as beneficiaries of an evolving global macro and capital allocation regime.

MSCI EM outperformance and flows into EM

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Have bonds regained their status as a haven asset?

February saw an impressive rally in duration. That’s despite a policy focus to run the US economy hot and some upside data surprises.
We think a big influence on recent US bond yields comes from international markets, like Japan, where investors are worrying less about fiscal and inflation risks. With the US tech trade faltering, crypto slipping, and gold and silver losing their lustre simultaneously, investors looked to traditional havens.
For the 60/40 investor, this was a welcome return to orthodoxy: after a long hiatus, Treasuries worked as a portfolio shock absorber again. But recent events in Iran saw Treasuries sell off despite a jump in market volatility and some risk-off moves. This reflects concerns over higher oil prices and the impact on inflation. And with tariffs keeping goods prices frothy and the colossal AI capex binge also posing upside inflation risks, a negative correlation between stocks and bonds isn’t guaranteed.
The spectre of fiscal dominance also looms large, with the debt burden and weight of Treasury supply this year. So, while bonds have offered some shelter from the risk-off storm in the last few weeks, there’s still a need for other diversifiers in resilient portfolios.

Rolling 12-month S&P 500/US 10-year correlation

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Market Data

February 2026

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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 28 February 2026. (*) Indices expressed as total returns. All others are price returns.

All total returns quoted in USD terms.
Data sourced from MSCI AC World Total Return Index, MSCI USA Total Return Index, MSCI AC Europe Total Return Index, MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Total Return Index, MSCI Japan Total Return Index, MSCI Latam Total Return Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index.

Click the image to enlarge

Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 28 February 2026. Total return includes income from dividends and interest as well as appreciation or depreciation in the price of an asset over the given period.

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Important Information

Basis of Views and Definitions of 'Asset class positioning' tables

Views are based on regional HSBC Asset Management Asset Allocation meetings held throughout February 2026, HSBC Asset Management’s long-term expected return forecasts which were generated as at 31 January 2026, our portfolio optimisation process and actual portfolio positions
Icons: ↑ View on this asset class has been upgraded – No change ↓ View on this asset class has been downgraded
Underweight, overweight and neutral classifications are the high-level asset allocations tilts applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios, which reflect a combination of our long-term valuation signals, our shorter-term cyclical views and actual positioning in portfolios. The views are expressed with reference to global portfolios. However, individual portfolio positions may vary according to mandate, benchmark, risk profile and the availability and riskiness of individual asset classes in different regions
"Overweight" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) a positive tilt towards the asset class
"Underweight" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would) have a negative tilt towards the asset class
"Neutral" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) neither a particularly negative or positive tilt towards the asset class
For global investment-grade corporate bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, USD investment-grade corporate bonds and EUR and GBP investment-grade corporate bonds are determined relative to the global investment-grade corporate bond universe
For Asia ex Japan equities, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the region at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, individual country views are determined relative to the Asia ex Japan equities universe as of 31 January 2026
Similarly, for EM government bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, EM Asian Fixed income views are determined relative to the EM government bonds (hard currency) universe as of 28 February 2026

This information shouldn't be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

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Content ID: D066238; 02.03.2027