Investment Monthly
Key Takeaways:
House Views
- Risk-off sentiment has stalled the “broadening out” theme, which has recently delivered strong performance in European and emerging markets. But a retreat in oil prices could quickly revive broadening out trends
- Emerging markets have resisted the twin shocks of surging oil prices and a stronger US dollar – reflecting a long-building structural shift: EM assets are becoming less sensitive to global “risk-off” events
- Bonds have not offered a meaningful defence amid recent volatility. In an environment of elevated geopolitical risk and fiscal uncertainty, investors should “diversify the diversifiers”, tilting towards alternatives
Macro Outlook
- Geopolitical uncertainty has crystallised into market volatility, with oil and other key commodity prices now the key macro variables to watch
- Oil prices remain above USD100, posing an upside inflation risk near-term. A persistently elevated oil price increases the risk of “demand destruction”
- US growth has been robust, but there are some imbalances. K-shaped dynamics remain in play. Higher gasoline prices could weigh on consumer spending and confidence while non-AI investment is weak
- In China, supportive macro policies and tech/industrial competitiveness support growth, but economic imbalances remain a key challenge
Policy Outlook
- Markets have priced in a more hawkish path for interest rates given the direct upside impact on CPI inflation from the commodity supply shock
- The US Fed should have room to look through a near-term inflation bump and cut modestly from late 2026. But central banks in Europe and the UK face a tougher test to manage inflation risks without crushing growth
- Countries in EM Asia are adopting varying policy approaches, but support is broadly focused on tackling uneven growth and long-term strategic goals
- China’s Five-Year Plan sees a policy focus on quality growth, economic resilience, and national security – with an emphasis on energy security, domestic consumption, and tech and innovation to drive productivity
Scenarios
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The value of investments and any income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at April 2026.
House View
Emerging markets have been a bright spot during recent volatility, which reflects broad structural improvements and diverse strengths across regions. A weak performance in both stocks and bonds – as well as traditional havens like gold – reinforces the importance of alternative portfolio diversifiers like real assets and hedge funds
- Equities – Surging energy prices have stalled the past year’s key market theme: the "broadening out" that delivered strong performance across Europe and emerging markets. A retreat in oil prices below USD100 could quickly revive it
- Government bonds – Geopolitical risks have added to policy uncertainty, growth concerns, and rising fiscal and inflation risks to keep yields elevated. However, a weaker growth outlook could put downward pressure on yields
- Corporate bonds – Investment grade credit spreads are tight but remain supported by solid corporate profits. High yield credit faces headwinds from uneven US growth and geopolitics. We maintain a preference for higher quality
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The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. House view
represents a >12-month investment view across major asset classes in our portfolios. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at April 2026.
Asset class performance at a glance
Developments in the Middle East have caused significant market volatility, with a surge in oil prices spurring uncertainty over the profits outlook. Many developed market indices fell by more than 10%, but emerging market stocks have proved robust. Bonds also sold-off on rising inflation fears. The US dollar strengthened, while gold fell
- Government bonds – Government bonds fell sharply (yields rose) on growing inflation concerns driven by the oil price spike and supply constraints affecting key commodities. The stock-bond correlation turned positive (both assets fell)
- Equities – Global stock markets sold off, with major energy importers like Europe and Japan worst affected, but emerging markets held up better. Amid the declines, US small-caps saw a better relative performance than large-caps
- Alternatives – After rallying in early 2026, gold fell sharply during March. Among listed real assets, there was a pull back in real estate, but infrastructure performed relatively well. Crypto prices came under sustained pressure
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Source: Bloomberg, all data above as at close of business 31 March 2026 in USD, total return, month-to-date terms. Note: Asset class performance is represented by different indices. Global Equities: MSCI ACWI Net Total Return USD Index. Global Emerging Market Equities: MSCI Emerging Market Net Total Return USD Index. Corporate Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global HY Total Return Index value unhedged. Bloomberg Barclays Global IG Total Return Index unhedged. Government bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Treasuries Total Return Index. JP Morgan EMBI Global Total Return local currency. Commodities and real estate: Gold Spot $/OZ, Other commodities: S&P GSCI Total Return CME. Real Estate: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Index TR USD. Crypto: Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Macro scenarios
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Market scenarios
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management April 2026.
Economic outlook
Fed in wait-and-see mode, ECB and BoE set hawkish tone
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Past performance does not predict future returns. Any views expressed were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. While any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management Limited accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, consensus numbers from Bloomberg, April 2026.
Events calendar 2026 - 6-month forward looking
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The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. Past performance does not predict future returns. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, April 2026.
Asset class positioning
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The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at April 2026.
On Top of Investors’ Minds
Why have EM assets performed relatively well during the Iran crisis?
Geopolitical events and spiking commodity prices have upended 2026’s big market theme of “broadening out”. But emerging markets are proving robust. In today’s risk-off situation, the dollar has been strengthening at a similar pace to Q1 2022. Capital flight back to the dollar usually means EM outflows, weaker currencies, and worsening EM debt burdens.
But there are clear signs of EM strength. First, not all EM currencies are down. The Colombian and Argentine peso are up in March. And currencies in Brazil, China, and Malaysia have all outperformed the dollar year-to-date. Second, EM assets haven’t tracked the dollar move down. Investors have been de-risking from popular trades, but price action also implies a recognition that EM fundamentals have improved (e.g. improved fiscal and external balances and central bank credibility). And third, EM bonds have been tracking DM bond performance, showing a much better relative performance versus the 2022 experience.
Divergence between countries is a big part of the story. Commodity exporters like Brazil and Colombia have benefited, while South Korea and Taiwan remain tied to the AI megatrend. The broadening-out trade has been interrupted, but EMs are still looking resilient – if you know where to look.
EM versus DM bond performance, Iran versus Ukraine conflict
The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Past performance does not predict future returns. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Source: Source: HSBC Asset Management as at April 2026.
Where are the havens?
Safety assets aren’t working like they used to. Since markets moved into risk-off mode at the start of March, gold has fallen around 15%, behaving like a risk asset as ownership has shifted towards retail and other leveraged buyers. Government bonds have sold off as central bank hikes have been priced in, and traditional safety currencies - like the Swiss franc or Japanese yen - are weaker. That’s a broad failure of traditional portfolio hedges.
The dollar is stronger, partly reflecting US energy independence, but gains are modest. And with “dollar down” a key theme in 2025-26, it’s not a fully dependable hedge either. So where did all the reliable havens go?
The idea of cheap, reliable safe assets worked when the shocks were mostly demand-driven, and policy responses were dominated by monetary policy on steroids. Today, those rules don’t hold. Macro conditions have changed, and the definition of “safety” for investors is evolving.
That’s why “diversify the diversifiers” remains a core theme in our investment outlook. A mix of liquid and alternative diversifiers (commodities, hedge funds, infra …), a long-term approach, and some acceptance of a bumpier journey, are the best defences for portfolios today.
Asset class performance since 28 February 2026
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The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Past performance does not predict future returns. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at April 2026.
Will central banks hike as much as markets expect?
Investors reckon the Fed will back away from cuts, and the ECB might even hike in 2026. This is a logical reaction, as higher commodity prices directly boost CPI inflation. The 2022 oil price spike and subsequent surge in policy rates demonstrated just how significant a monetary policy response can be, accounting for a large portion of the market damage that year.
But is 2022 the right playbook for today? For inflation to remain persistent, an initial shock must be transmitted through the broader macro system. Today, this might be less of a threat than a few years ago. Western GDP growth rates are notably weaker than they were back then, US growth is unbalanced, labour markets are fragile, and monetary policy is still a bit restrictive. Furthermore, there will likely be only a tepid fiscal response to support households through this crisis. So called “second-round” effects of the initial shock – driven by higher wage demands and increased corporate pricing – are likely to be limited. More likely, central banks will sound hawkish to prevent inflation expectations from unanchoring, but avoid significant hiking. That would probably result in a very different market outcome to 2022 – one where the volatility episode is transitory and the stock-bond correlation stays closer to zero.
2026 no. of 25bp rate hikes priced
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The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at April 2026.
Market Data
March 2026
All total returns quoted in USD terms.
Data sourced from MSCI AC World Total Return Index, MSCI USA Total Return Index, MSCI AC Europe Total Return Index, MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Total Return Index, MSCI Japan Total Return Index, MSCI Latam Total Return Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index.
Total return income from dividends and interest as well as appreciation or depreciation in the price of an asset over the given period. Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in tincludeshe future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 March 2026.
Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 March 2026.
Important Information
Basis of Views and Definitions of 'Asset class positioning' tables
- Views are based on regional HSBC Asset Management Asset Allocation meetings held throughout March 2026, HSBC Asset Management’s long-term expected return forecasts which were generated as at 28 February 2026, our portfolio optimisation process and actual portfolio positions
- Icons: ↑ View on this asset class has been upgraded – No change ↓ View on this asset class has been downgraded
- Underweight, overweight and neutral classifications are the high-level asset allocations tilts applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios, which reflect a combination of our long-term valuation signals, our shorter-term cyclical views and actual positioning in portfolios. The views are expressed with reference to global portfolios. However, individual portfolio positions may vary according to mandate, benchmark, risk profile and the availability and riskiness of individual asset classes in different regions
- "Overweight" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) a positive tilt towards the asset class
- "Underweight" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would) have a negative tilt towards the asset class
- "Neutral" implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) neither a particularly negative or positive tilt towards the asset class
- For global investment-grade corporate bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, USD investment-grade corporate bonds and EUR and GBP investment-grade corporate bonds are determined relative to the global investment-grade corporate bond universe
- For Asia ex Japan equities, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the region at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, individual country views are determined relative to the Asia ex Japan equities universe as of 28 February 2026
- Similarly, for EM government bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, EM Asian Fixed income views are determined relative to the EM government bonds (hard currency) universe as of 31 March 2026
For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.
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